[extropy-chat] Drake Equation nitpicking

[kevinfreels.com]

One thing has consistently bothered me about the simulation argument. Is
there any reason to think that there is a difference between simulation and
reality to begin with? In a simulation that is done correctly, isn;t the
difference small enough to where it doesn't really matter which you are in?
If so, why waste valuable mental energy on pondering such questions? If not,
why not?

Keep in mind, I may be part of the simulation and may have been told to ask
those questions. :-)




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Adrian Tymes" <wingcat at pacbell.net>
To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2005 10:52 AM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Drake Equation nitpicking


> --- Mike Lorrey <mlorrey at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > If one technological civilization exists at any time
> > in the entire
> > history of each universe and develops sim tech, then
> > odds are massively
> > in favor of the simulation argument.
>
> Only if the sim includes other races.
>
> > N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x ft x fs
> [corrected to remove fc as well]
> >
> > where:
> >
> > N is the number of extraterrestrial civilizations
> > that exist at any
> > time in the history of our universe which we might
> > expect to be able to
> > go posthuman and create simulated universes.
>
> Ah - "be able to", or "actually do"?  And the concepts
> of posthuman and creating sim universes aren't
> necessarily linked - though, of course, it's fair to
> ask specifically about just those races who do both.
>
> >  and
> >
> >
> >  R* is the rate of star formation in our universe
> >  fp is the fraction of those stars which have
> > planets
> >  ne is average number of planets which can
> > potentially support
> >     life per star that has planets
>
> Might want to include moons in that.  E.g., it appears
> that (ne x fl) might be at least 4 in this solar
> system's case: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan.
>
> >  fl is the fraction of the above which actually go
> > on to develop life
> >  fi is the fraction of the above which actually go
> > on to develop
> >     intelligent life
> >  ft is the fraction of the above which survive to
> > post-human
> >     equivalent technological development
> >  fs is the fraction of the above which develop and
> > use universe
> >     simulation technologies to replicate their own
> > past history
> >     or made-up histories.
> >
> > (You can call this the Lorrey Equation ... ;)) It is
> > quite clear that
> > if we are talking about a volume of space as huge as
> > the entire
> > universe, then the odds of N exceeding 1 are
> > extremely large. As soon
> > as N meets 0.5 (half of natural universes have one
> > such civilization),
> > then the odds of us living in a simulated universe
> > exceeds 50%. The
> > odds increase asymptotically as N approaches 1.
> > Beyond N=1, you are
> > dealing with the mathematics of infinitely large
> > probabilities, i.e.
> > sure things, tautologies.
>
> Not necessarily.  The terms ft and fs both seem to be
> essentially unknown (despite unjustified claims that
> fs in particular and maybe also ft are both 1), and it
> seems like (R* x fp x ne x fl x fi) <= 1 for the
> volume of space we have observed so far, possibly for
> the entire galaxy.
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