[extropy-chat] Re: cosmic silence

[spike]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Russell Wallace
> Subject: [extropy-chat] Re: cosmic silence
> 
> On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 23:32:30 -0800, spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
> >
> > Well, no.  I'm focused on the galaxy for now.
> 
> Well then there's nothing to be puzzled about - we don't have any
> reason at all to suppose that the fraction of stars that produce
> technological civilizations is greater than 1e-12.
> 
> - Russell

Hmmm, that seems a little self assured, Russell.  I 
would estimate the fraction several orders of magnitude
higher than 1e-12.  

I have another notion that may explain it, which builds 
on an argument I presented here a couple years ago.  If
a singularity and nanotech, then a post singularity
tech society would surely take all available metals
in that star system and convert it to computronium.
The value of communications from a distant star is
inversely proportional to its distance, so it might
not be worth the metal to build signal receivers for a
post-singularity MBrain.  It almost certainly would
not be worth the effort for even a pre-singularity civ
to send out signals, for it is unclear how it would
benefit directly.

Sagan explained the silence by postulating the dreadful
possibility that the typical time between signal-capable 
civilization and total self-annihilation is tragically 
short.  I countersuggest that the time between signal-
capable civilization and transformation to computronium is
mercifully short.

spike