[extropy-chat] Re: cosmic silence

[Russell Wallace]

On Thu, 17 Feb 2005 19:44:42 -0800, spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
> 
> > Well then there's nothing to be puzzled about - we don't have any
> > reason at all to suppose that the fraction of stars that produce
> > technological civilizations is greater than 1e-12.
> 
> Hmmm, that seems a little self assured, Russell.

"We don't have any reason at all to suppose..."

Pointing out the absence of evidence isn't a comment about my level of
assurance (which to be sure is often quite high, but not in this
case). If there _was_ evidence and I commanded you ex cathedra to
disbelieve it, that would be self-assurance ;)

> I
> would estimate the fraction several orders of magnitude
> higher than 1e-12.

Yes, but you have zero evidence for that estimate. There's no reason
at all to believe it to be e.g. 1e-6 rather than 1e-60, other than
that you (in general, not just you personally) _want_ it to be the
higher number. Which goes back to my puzzlement - why do so many
people want there to be aliens in our galaxy?

- Russell