[extropy-chat] Aegis 3rd generation missile: BMD system

[J. Andrew Rogers]

On Feb 27, 2005, at 12:07 PM, Samantha Atkins wrote:
> A few success out of how many failures (and using targets making 
> success more probable than real life)  and they speak of how "awesome" 
> the system is and of wide deployment?  Seems a bit premature.



Let me inject some context here.

The sensor and discrimination systems used by the military are highly 
standardized, generally using the same software algorithms and sensor 
electronics across many different types of weapon systems.  The 
different missile systems are no different in this regard, generally 
mixing and matching one of a few standard sensor/discrimination systems 
with a physical delivery platform designed to to meet some 
specification.

Contrary to popular speculation, the sensor/discrimination platform 
used in ABM systems was well-proven a decade ago and is used in many 
other weapon systems.  The discrimination capability of the particular 
seeker package used here is extremely competent and nearly impervious 
to spoofing or decoys (as has been demonstrated very convincingly in 
other fielded systems), making the oft-repeated "decoy" argument a red 
herring.

The reason the Army/Air Force systems have been failing is that they 
are using an entirely new class of ultra-high performance rocket design 
that is still really in "testing"; several different weapon systems 
based on it are still having the kinks ironed out because the nature of 
the rocket platform poses some novel engineering problems that have not 
been entirely resolved to a level that makes them easy to work with.  
The ABM versions of this rocket platform are the most extreme of its 
current applications, making it the most likely to fail currently under 
real-world conditions -- it operates near the limits of molecular 
materials.

The Aegis missile system in question here is a very advanced version of 
the old generation of missile platforms while using one of the standard 
ABM seeker packages.  This is a much more reliable platform for 
intercept because all the major components are well-characterized, but 
the rocket platform is substantially less capable than the new one that 
is giving problems for the other branches of the military.

Since the DoD is banking on the capabilities of the new rocket 
platform, it is just a matter of time before it becomes sufficiently 
reliable that the ABM systems will be able to make it to their target 
reliably.


j. andrew rogers