[extropy-chat] what to do

Samantha Atkins sjatkins at mac.com
Sat Jun 11 18:02:16 UTC 2005


The software in for combo betting, if giving it away is possible  
anyway, could be done as open source.  Ideally this would enable you  
to get this done and other items on your list as well.

Is it possible to establish a foundation or the equivalent under  
which to group items 4, 6, 7 and 8?  This again would potentially act  
as a multiplier on your efforts and those of others making larger  
impact on the world more likely in these areas.

- samantha

On Jun 10, 2005, at 3:56 PM, Robin Hanson wrote:

> Now that I have tenure, I'm tempted to spend the next few years on  
> a new
> post-tenure project.  Since I should choose carefully, I solicit your
> advice.  No rush; it will be a month or two until I finish my  
> current tasks.
>
> My goal is to make great things happen; getting personal credit can  
> enable
> me to do more things later, but is otherwise not the main goal.  By
> temperament I most like to think deep thoughts, I least like to manage
> other people, and explaining things is somewhere in the middle.
>
> Here are the ten main choices as I see them now:
>
> 1. Disagreement Book - Expand "Are Disagreements Honest" and  
> related papers
> into a book, adding new material on data about who is right in real
> disagreements.  I've been telling people this is my plan.  This could
> establish my reputation as a deep thinker on a big issue.  Fun, as  
> there are
> still things for me to learn on this topic.  No real competition on  
> this
> topic (as least re the more technical angle), and it is nicely not  
> aligned
> with an ideology.  But not clear this will really change much in  
> the world.
>
> 2. Medicine Book - Expand "Showing That You Care" into a book,  
> making as
> clear as possible to a wide audience the point that medicine  
> doesn't help
> them on the usual margin.  Alas, this is not a message people want  
> to hear,
> and I may not learn much doing this.
>
> 3. Upload Futures Papers and Book - Return to and finish my papers  
> analyzing
> the social implications of future technologies, particularly  
> uploads.  Then
> write a book summarizing this area.  I don't know of a more  
> important policy
> question, and no one else is doing this.  But it is not clear that  
> making
> more people aware of these issues will produce better policy;  
> future tech is
> usually treated symbolically, and this often makes things worse.
>
> 4. Idea Futures book - present the grand vision of idea futures  
> solving many
> problems.  Someone else is ahead of me with a similar book, and not  
> sure a
> popular book shouldn't wait until there is more real progress to  
> report.  I
> wouldn't learn much doing this.  But this is what I am now most  
> famous for.
>
> 5. No subject book - just start writing and see what the book turns  
> out to
> be about.
>
> 6. Demo Combo Betting - Write software to clearly demonstrate my  
> vision of
> combinatorial markets, then sell the tech or give it away.  If I  
> don't do
> this it may be many years until others do it.  And this tech can  
> dramatically
> lower the cost of idea futures, allowing many more uses.  But this  
> may not
> be the limiting factor to wider use.  Software needs little money,  
> and is
> fully under my control, but I left software long ago because I  
> preferred to
> ponder.
>
> 7. Decision Markets Application - Solicit funds for and create a  
> big set of
> real money markets on an important policy area, to clearly  
> demonstrate by
> example the value of decision markets.  Might be on health policy,  
> global
> warming, foreign aid, or other big public policy area.  Or might  
> focus on
> policies of big corporations.  Would require me to be more of a  
> manager,
> which may not be my strong suit.  Others may well do this if I do not.
>
> 8. Media Controversy Track Records - Based on my PAM press paper.   
> Solicit
> funds for and create a institute dedicated to collecting a track  
> record on
> who turned out to be right in media controversies.  Use this to infer
> indicators of who tends to be right, and then use those indicators  
> to create
> a press watch service predicting where future opinion will go in  
> current
> controversies.  Can then solicit donations to support the inclusion  
> of donor
> topics of interest.  Good idea, but not clear I'm the right person  
> to do it.
>
> 9. Mangled Worlds - Learn and apply enough physics theory to figure  
> out if
> my mangled worlds concept really is the solution the deep mystery  
> of quantum
> mechanics that it seems to me.  Maybe a 25% chance I'm right, but  
> if I am,
> and I take the time to explain myself clearly, would establish a  
> strong
> reputation as a deep thinker.  Should know one way or other in 3  
> years.
> Would be fun, though not clear it has any practical implications.
>
> 10. Something New - Relax, read widely for a year or two, and then  
> re-examine
> the question.
>
>
>
>
>
> Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
> Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
> MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
> 703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323
>
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