[extropy-chat] Slashdot draft: Prediction markets and space development

[Neil Halelamien]

[I'm soon going to be submitting another slashdot article on
extropy-related topics. Per usual, I'd appreciate any suggestions of
changes or tweaks before I make the actual submission.]

Submission html:

Although events such as SpaceShipOne's suborbital spaceflights and the
<a href=http://www.space.com/adastra/050523_musk_nss.html>upcoming
maiden launch</a> of SpaceX's privately-built Falcon I orbital rocket
have caused many experts to predict what the future of the commercial
space market is going to be like, many of these views tend to be
radically different from each other. The Space Review has an <a
href=http://www.thespacereview.com/article/390/1>article</a> by Dr.
Sam Dinkin where he proposes using information aggregation markets
(also known as <a href=http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html>idea
futures</a> or <a
href=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market>prediction
markets</a>) to aggregate the forecasts of professional and armchair
experts, producing a more accurate view of the future of commercial
spaceflight. These types of markets, where traders essentially 'put
their money where their mouth is' and profit from accurate
predictions, are arguably the most effective means of predicting
future trends and events. Possible securities could include the
predicted launch costs, the strength of carbon nanotube cables, and
the number of private astronauts in a particular year. With such a
system in place, entrepreneurs, investors and policy makers would have
more reliable information on what to expect from commercial space
activities and how to best invest in them.

Submission text:

Although events such as SpaceShipOne's suborbital spaceflights and the
upcoming maiden launch of SpaceX's privately-built Falcon I orbital
rocket have caused many experts to predict what the future of the
commercial space market is going to be like, many of these views tend
to be radically different from each other. The Space Review has an
article by Dr. Sam Dinkin where he proposes using information
aggregation markets (also known as idea futures or prediction markets)
to aggregate the forecasts of professional and armchair experts,
producing a more accurate view of the future of commercial
spaceflight. These types of markets, where traders essentially 'put
their money where their mouth is' and profit from accurate
predictions, are arguably the most effective means of predicting
future trends and events. Possible securities could include the
predicted launch costs, the strength of carbon nanotube cables, and
the number of private astronauts in a particular year. With such a
system in place, entrepreneurs, investors and policy makers would have
more reliable information on what to expect from commercial space
activities and how to best invest in them.

Submission links:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/390/1
http://www.space.com/adastra/050523_musk_nss.html
http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market