[extropy-chat] Slashdot draft: Prediction markets and space development

giorgio gaviraghi giogavir at yahoo.it
Mon Jun 13 12:48:34 UTC 2005


After spaceshipone flight there was a lot of enthudiam
for the so called space tourism
IN REALITY PLANS ARE FOR SUBORBITAL 10 MINUTE FLIGHTS
nothing to do with orbital flights that require ten
times more speed and higher altiyude together with a
different and more advanced technology.
If there is a real market at 250000$ per flight to
fill the expected capacity, the VIRGIN GALACTIC FUTURE
PLANE WILL CARRY 5 OR 6 PAYING PASSENGERS
is unknown.
past comercial space predictions were always wrong,
the Iridium disaster is a good reminder.
I believe that before space could be a profit making
environment for private enterprises and a new business
environment space accessibility costs must be slashed
of two order of magnitude from 10000$ per kg to 100$
per Kg.
Witout that it will not produce any progress but
remain a high risk activity
--- Neil Halelamien <neuronexmachina at gmail.com> ha
scritto: 

> [I'm soon going to be submitting another slashdot
> article on
> extropy-related topics. Per usual, I'd appreciate
> any suggestions of
> changes or tweaks before I make the actual
> submission.]
> 
> Submission html:
> 
> Although events such as SpaceShipOne's suborbital
> spaceflights and the
> <a
>
href=http://www.space.com/adastra/050523_musk_nss.html>upcoming
> maiden launch</a> of SpaceX's privately-built Falcon
> I orbital rocket
> have caused many experts to predict what the future
> of the commercial
> space market is going to be like, many of these
> views tend to be
> radically different from each other. The Space
> Review has an <a
>
href=http://www.thespacereview.com/article/390/1>article</a>
> by Dr.
> Sam Dinkin where he proposes using information
> aggregation markets
> (also known as <a
> href=http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html>idea
> futures</a> or <a
>
href=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market>prediction
> markets</a>) to aggregate the forecasts of
> professional and armchair
> experts, producing a more accurate view of the
> future of commercial
> spaceflight. These types of markets, where traders
> essentially 'put
> their money where their mouth is' and profit from
> accurate
> predictions, are arguably the most effective means
> of predicting
> future trends and events. Possible securities could
> include the
> predicted launch costs, the strength of carbon
> nanotube cables, and
> the number of private astronauts in a particular
> year. With such a
> system in place, entrepreneurs, investors and policy
> makers would have
> more reliable information on what to expect from
> commercial space
> activities and how to best invest in them.
> 
> Submission text:
> 
> Although events such as SpaceShipOne's suborbital
> spaceflights and the
> upcoming maiden launch of SpaceX's privately-built
> Falcon I orbital
> rocket have caused many experts to predict what the
> future of the
> commercial space market is going to be like, many of
> these views tend
> to be radically different from each other. The Space
> Review has an
> article by Dr. Sam Dinkin where he proposes using
> information
> aggregation markets (also known as idea futures or
> prediction markets)
> to aggregate the forecasts of professional and
> armchair experts,
> producing a more accurate view of the future of
> commercial
> spaceflight. These types of markets, where traders
> essentially 'put
> their money where their mouth is' and profit from
> accurate
> predictions, are arguably the most effective means
> of predicting
> future trends and events. Possible securities could
> include the
> predicted launch costs, the strength of carbon
> nanotube cables, and
> the number of private astronauts in a particular
> year. With such a
> system in place, entrepreneurs, investors and policy
> makers would have
> more reliable information on what to expect from
> commercial space
> activities and how to best invest in them.
> 
> Submission links:
> 
> http://www.thespacereview.com/article/390/1
> http://www.space.com/adastra/050523_musk_nss.html
> http://hanson.gmu.edu/ideafutures.html
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo/extropy-chat
> 



	

	
		
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