[extropy-chat] Slashdot draft: Prediction markets and space development

[Adrian Tymes]

--- giorgio gaviraghi <giogavir at yahoo.it> wrote:
> After spaceshipone flight there was a lot of enthudiam
> for the so called space tourism
> IN REALITY PLANS ARE FOR SUBORBITAL 10 MINUTE FLIGHTS
> nothing to do with orbital flights that require ten
> times more speed and higher altiyude together with a
> different and more advanced technology.

Different and more advanced, but not that much so.  In truth, the
primary "technology" being proved out by these 10 minute flights is
simply project management and cost controls as applied to rocketry
projects - something that the existing big corporate players have
stubbornly resisted, since the majority (by dollar volume) of contracts
have been "cost-plus": "charge whatever you can say it cost, plus a
guaranteed profit".

Details like more advanced avionics and different rocket fuels - the
stuff that might have to change to serve truly orbital rockets - have
helped, but they're far from the main thing bringing costs down.

> I believe that before space could be a profit making
> environment for private enterprises and a new business
> environment space accessibility costs must be slashed
> of two order of magnitude from 10000$ per kg to 100$
> per Kg.

Agreed.  And that's about what some of the more serious contenders are
privately aiming for.  (They won't say it in public, lest they be held
to it as a promise they're not 100% sure they can keep.  But sometimes,
ventures like these do indeed hit the goals they try to hit.)