[extropy-chat] Wetware vs. Hardware (was IQ vs Upload)

[The Avantguardian]

     I have done some back of the envelope
calculations to try to answer my own questions on this
matter. If we have 10^12 neurons with 10^4 connections
per neuron, the total connectivity of the human brain
is (10^12)*(10^4)/2= 5*10^15 total connections. I
divide by 2 because the connection from neuron A to
neuron B is the same connection as from neuron B to
neuron A. This number alone is some 5000 times higher
than the approximate figure of 1 terabyte of storage
that Moore's Law has currently yielded us, but it
isn't even a map of the SPECIFIC neuronal connections
(i.e. neuron A is connected neuron B and so on) but is
instead merely an aggregate figure of the total number
of connections.

     To be a specific map, one would have to have
allocate approximately 10 bytes to address each
connection, 5 bytes to address the input neuron and 5
bytes to address the output neuron. This brings us to
a total of about 5x10^16 bytes to have a virtual map
of the human brain with near reality level resolution.
This is 50,000 times more data density than we have
currently achieved. So if Moore's Law keeps chugging
away as expected then approximately 30 years from now,
we should have our first human level AI.
    Now from a human-level, the A.I.'s intelligence
would quickly rise within a span of a decade to
super-human levels, if we keep giving it hardware
upgrades. But the Flynn effect would also be operative
over those years. Since considering that my 30 year
time-line is about a single generation of humanity,
then Robin's figure of 1 standard deviation per
generation would mean that the average human born then
would be about 33% smarter than someone born today. 
     So by my back of envelope analysis of Moore's Law
versus the Flynn Effect, the Singularity would still
happen but it is still at least 30 years away.  I
actually think I might be more prepared to deal with
it on such a timetable than if it happened tomorrow.
Consequently I will not lose any sleep over it. Ciao.
:)
      

The Avantguardian 
is 
Stuart LaForge
alt email: stuart"AT"ucla.edu

"The surest sign of intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't attempted to contact us." 
-Bill Watterson

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