[extropy-chat] Atheism in Decline

[Hal Finney]

I'd suggest applying some of the basic principles of Bayesian reasoning
to the question of atheism vs belief in God.  Bayesian reasoning works
on the basis of probability.  The question is not, do you believe in God.
The question is, what, in your mind, is the probability that God exists?

Presumably, religious believers would give this a high value.  Atheists
would give it a low value.  And agnostics, perhaps, would be somewhere
in between.

But is this right?  Is the only difference between atheists and agnostics
the numerical estiamte they would give for the probability that God
exists?  Or is there something else about this difference, something
qualitative which Bayesian probability reasoning doesn't capture?

This analysis brings up another point as well.  If someone asks you,
"What is the probability that God exists?" you may well answer, "Define
God."  There are many notions of God in the literature, and some are
more probable than others.  There may even be as many notions of God
as there are people; or even more, for our conceptions of God probably
change from time to time.  Until you know which concept of God they are
asking about, you can't give a meaningful answer to the probability of
his existence.

Hal