[extropy-chat] Re: Overconfidence and meta-rationality

[Robin Hanson]

At 02:48 AM 3/21/2005, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
>There's an art of sticking as close to the question as possible - arguing 
>about
>If I am rational, then I should have decent reasons - Bayesian causes - 
>for believing as I do.  Once I have disgorged my reasons for believing 
>something, my rationality becomes much less inferentially relevant to 
>whether my belief is probably correct.  ...

Yes.  But as the limited humans we are, we can usually only explicitly 
communicate a small fraction of the considerations we actually used in 
choosing our beliefs.



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323