[extropy-chat] Re: Koran scholar: US will cease to exist in 2007

[J. Andrew Rogers]

Mike Lorrey wrote:
> Expect China to dump its $587 billion in FRNs 6-12 months before it
> launches the operation against Taiwan they are now rehearsing with
> Russia. The missile tsunami will occur if we give them any guff over
> the issue. If China drops the dollar bomb, the debt tsunami is
> guaranteed.


Ridiculous and simplistic.

So they burn a half trillion in currency assets, mightily piss off two
of the most powerful militaries in the world (US and Japan) who just
happen to have vastly more sophisticated military assets than China in
their neighborhood and decisive control of the sea lanes, virtually
guarantee a steep cut in their export markets and retaliatory resource
strangulation, and making the Russians mighty nervous about the
integrity of their Siberian oil fields.  Just so that they can grab
Taiwan in what would almost certainly be a bloody and protracted war.

The current Chinese government would not survive that scenario, and
would die at the hand of its own people.  And they know this.

China is holding Shylock's contract, Portia is eyeballing them with a
big ass-whoopin' stick, and it is not like Antonio is just going to roll
over and take it either.

The only realistic scenario would be for China to slowly corrode and
overthrow the Taiwanese government from the inside out, obviating the
almost certain losing hot war scenario.  And the US and Japan would be
actively interfering with such efforts.


cheers,

j. andrew rogers