[extropy-chat] Re: Koran scholar: US will cease to exist in 2007

[Mike Lorrey]

--- "J. Andrew Rogers" <andrew at ceruleansystems.com> wrote:
> Mike Lorrey wrote:
> > Expect China to dump its $587 billion in FRNs 6-12 months before it
> > launches the operation against Taiwan they are now rehearsing with
> > Russia. The missile tsunami will occur if we give them any guff
> over
> > the issue. If China drops the dollar bomb, the debt tsunami is
> > guaranteed.
> 
> 
> Ridiculous and simplistic.
> 
> So they burn a half trillion in currency assets, mightily piss off
> two
> of the most powerful militaries in the world (US and Japan) who just
> happen to have vastly more sophisticated military assets than China
> in
> their neighborhood and decisive control of the sea lanes, virtually
> guarantee a steep cut in their export markets and retaliatory
> resource
> strangulation, and making the Russians mighty nervous about the
> integrity of their Siberian oil fields.  Just so that they can grab
> Taiwan in what would almost certainly be a bloody and protracted war.
> 
> The current Chinese government would not survive that scenario, and
> would die at the hand of its own people.  And they know this.
> China is holding Shylock's contract, Portia is eyeballing them with a
> big ass-whoopin' stick, and it is not like Antonio is just going to
> roll over and take it either.
> 
> The only realistic scenario would be for China to slowly corrode and
> overthrow the Taiwanese government from the inside out, obviating the
> almost certain losing hot war scenario.  And the US and Japan would
> be actively interfering with such efforts.

Not likely. Chinese popular sentiment is that a) Taiwan is part of
China, b) any secession action by Taiwan should be met with force. The
Peoples Congress just passed authorization of force approval. China is
rehearsing the invasion NOW. They are deploying their first generation
nuclear missile sub fleet NOW, w/ missiles capable of hitting anywhere
in the US from the west coast. They have announced they are going to
"diversify" their currency reserve portfolio. They have started a
breakneck project to revitalize and expand massive silver deposits.
They have signed an agreement with the Phillipines, Indonesia,
Malaysia, and Vietnam over the Spratly oil fields for joint exploration
and exploitation.

China is over 1 billion people. Taiwan is only 28 million. Invading
Taiwan would be a cakewalk for China provided they put the US pacific
fleet out of commission either militarily or economically. If the
dollar bomb drops, US oil prices will hit $150/bbl. The US won't be
able to support fueling any sort of material airlift or sealift effort.

The US will sit it out with a quick recession, or get stupid and have a
nuclear exchange, while accomodating Taiwanese refugees, and if there
is no nuclear exchange, within a year will start enjoying a massive
positive trade balance for the first time in decades. China will have
Taiwan at the expense of the US trade relationship, but it will also
have a massive domestic consumer economy to start making their own
products for.

Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com


		
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