[extropy-chat] Taiwan (was: US will cease to exist in 2007)

[Keith Henson]

At 05:28 PM 30/03/05 -0800, J. Andrew Rogers wrote:

snip

>The bottom line is that China has no credible military lever against the
>US, even the "we'll go crazy and flip out on you" gambit is a loser
>because the US would know it is a bluff.  They aren't invading Taiwan to
>drag themselves into a full-scale war with the US -- there are easier
>ways to accomplish that.

snip

I agree, though there *are* situations where China might go to war.

1.  Someone attacks them.  That will always do it.

2.  They get into an economic problem where growth takes a big hit for long 
enough for xenophobic memes (no matter how insane) to grow to the point 
they attack someone.  Taiwan being one of the more likely.

Such an attack would be irrational, of course, but the psychological 
mechanisms we have that get us into wars (inherited from the remote past) 
include suppression of rational thinking.

Wish I could point you to the 20 page article on the subject, but it isn't 
up anywhere yet.

Keith Henson