[extropy-chat] Taiwan (was: US will cease to exist in 2007)

[Mike Lorrey]

--- "J. Andrew Rogers" <andrew at ceruleansystems.com> wrote:

> Mike Lorrey wrote:
> > Not likely. Chinese popular sentiment is that a) Taiwan is part of
> > China, b) any secession action by Taiwan should be met with force.
> The
> > Peoples Congress just passed authorization of force approval.
> 
> 
> Don't confuse the Chinese government with the land area that is
> China. 
> It is a fragmented and complex country, and the communist party has
> to put on quite a dog-and-pony show just to maintain their control. 

Yes, and nationalist fever is part of it. The more of a lather they can
get the yokels in about Taiwan, they less they bitch about their own
slavery.

> They
> no longer have the ability to rule with an iron fist within their own
> borders, as there are too many other powerful competing interests
> they have to keep reasonably unagitated.

Every one of which is at least 50% owned by a major state ministry. The
Peoples Liberation Army is the largest industrial conglomerate.
> 
> 
> > China is rehearsing the invasion NOW.
> 
> 
> You do know that Taiwan is an island quite a distance off the
> continent,
> right?  China maintains a littoral Navy with a tiny and third-rate
> "green water" force (Taiwan would be a "green water" operation) and
> no history of competent naval operations in modern times.  And their
> anti-submarine capability is simply obsolete, leaving those ships
> vulnerable as they cross the channel.

Not so. They have been building Aegis rip-offs for a decade now and
have purchased a fleet of ultra-quiet german diesel attack subs which
outperform our own. The only category of ship they aren't building
right now are aircraft carriers.



> 
> I'd love to know how they'll mount an "invasion" with that kind of
> force projection capability.  China can't project more than a few
> divisions,
> and with such a meager and obsolete force that they would lose most
> of these assets to first-line Taiwanese defenses(which are comparable
> to what most European countries can field, technology-wise).  

Where do you think all the circuit boards for those Taiwanese ships are
built? The Chinese can afford a Stalingrad style offense if they have
to, but they don't.

> > They are deploying their first generation
> > nuclear missile sub fleet NOW, w/ missiles capable of hitting
> > anywhere in the US from the west coast.
> 
> The subs are obsolete by our standards. If we thought they were a
> threat, we'd be have hunter subs on their tail in no time.  Not that
> it
> matters, since China would have a difficult enough time with Taiwan
> without giving the US (and likely Japan) an excuse to scuttle every
> piece of hardware that leaves their shore by sea or air.

On the contrary, these subs are ultra quiet thanks to 8 years of
Clinton selling top notch machining technology to China.

> In case you haven't been paying attention, superior battlefield
> technology spanks quantity these days, and China is both
> inexperienced
> at this type of warfare AND using outdated technology.  They may have
> millions upon millions of soldiers, but they'll be sitting on the
> shoreline annoying no one but themselves.

You apparently haven't been paying attention. The US Navy is obsolete,
with the sole exception of the Aegis Pac-3 systems. The Hornet attack
plane is now doing double duty as a fighter since the Tomcats are now
worn out and being moved to Reserve units. The Navy is still building a
50 year old aircraft carrier design and flying planes that are 30-40
years old.

> 
> The bottom line is that China has no credible military lever against
> the
> US, even the "we'll go crazy and flip out on you" gambit is a loser
> because the US would know it is a bluff.  They aren't invading Taiwan
> to
> drag themselves into a full-scale war with the US -- there are easier
> ways to accomplish that.
> 
> 
> > They have announced they are going to
> > "diversify" their currency reserve portfolio.
> 
> So?

When they dump nearly $600 billion in cash reserves on the
international currency markets, the other $500 billion that other
central banks are holding are going to get dumped too. The dollar is
going to tank, big time, to less than 10% of its current levels, unless
the US gov't does some drastic things, like raising interest rates to
20%, selling off the whole strategic oil reserve, and have the federal
reserve sell off the last of its gold stocks. Even that will not soak
up more than $500 billion.

> 
> 
> > They have started a breakneck project to revitalize and
> > expand massive silver deposits.
> 
> 
> So?  The price of silver is marginally over the cost of production --
> most silver production is incidental from copper, gold, and lead
> mining.
>  I'm not sure what increasing silver production is going to get them,
> since the price can't go much lower and there is not a lot of profit
> in it anyway.

The cost of production is different for different locations. Right now
silver is pushing the $7.50 an ounce. Cost of production averages just
over $5.50 typically, but as the price rises less optimal deposits will
get exploited. That is the nature of mining anything. The fact is that
global silver supply is lagging behind demand by a significant percent
and surplus stocks which had accumulated in the late 90's are about
expended. Forecasters are predicting $10/oz silver within a year and
rising thereafter. Silver prices are now tracking with copper prices as
both are the key metals in the continuously growing electronics
industry.

When China dumps the dollar, they are going to need a new reserve
asset. Euros might suffice for a while, but the european economy is
stagnant. The Chinese govt is opening those silver mines to start
issuing silver and silver backed currency.
 
> > They have signed an agreement with the Phillipines, Indonesia,
> > Malaysia, and Vietnam over the Spratly oil fields for joint 
> > exploration and exploitation.
>  
> That's nice.  Unfortunately, they won't see any oil from this for
> many, many years, so I do not see the relevance to your hypothesized
> impending invasion of Taiwan.

Exploratory wells are starting now. Production is expected in 2008.
Meantime, they are stockpiling arab and south american oil as fast as
possible.

> > China is over 1 billion people. Taiwan is only 28 million. Invading
> > Taiwan would be a cakewalk for China provided they put the US
> > pacific fleet out of commission either militarily or economically.
> 
> 
> So now the Chinese can walk on water?  That will be a several day
> march.
> Your entire hypothesis is based on absurd premises. The Chinese could
> not move enough soldiers to do the job today in the absence of the US
> Navy and the Taiwanese naval defenses.  And in the real world, there
> *are* Taiwanese naval defenses and twitchy US and Japanese military
> assets.  The idea that the Chinese have the capability to put the US
> Navy out of commission is ludicrous on its face; a 20-30 year
> military
> technology advantage in modern times is all but insurmountable.  And
> that is presuming that the Chinese have a significant quantity of
> these assets themselves, and in many categories they do not.

You don't seem to get it. Technology on a ship is irrelevant when your
ship doesn't have fuel. When the dollar is in the tank, oil prices in
the US will be over $150/bbl. The US cannot sustain a logistical train
across the Pacific with that sort of a cost level.

There is a maxim in military circles: "Dillettantes talk tactics,
amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics." Wars are won and
lost on logistics alone. This is how the US wins its wars, not because
of superior technology, despite what the propaganda says. Technology is
a tactic.


Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com

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