[extropy-chat] Taiwan

[Dirk Bruere]

Dan Clemmensen wrote:

> Taiwan is the home of several very large Semiconductor Fab companies.
> Each company runs several leading-edge wafer Fabs, in total comprising a
> substantial percentage of the world's modern semiconductor fabrication
> capability.  Any disruption of the output of these fabs will have a 
> bigger
> effect on the world economy than a a major disruption in a major 
> oil-producing
> country. A major new fab costs about $4B. An earthquake that shakes a 
> fab can
> destroy all work in progress even if no capital equipment is damaged. 
> Work in
> progress can amount to $250M per fab. A slightly more severe 
> earthquake can disrupt
> power, causing loss of work in progress plus loss of certain expensive 
> capital
> equipment ( what are "quartz tubes" and why do they die when power is 
> lost?)
> Conclusion: an invasion of Taiwan is a lot more serious than it at 
> first appears.
> a single nuke in the wrong place will disrupt the world economy.
>
As would a few dozen cruise missiles or IRBMs loaded with HE aimed at 
such high value targets.
Of course, the US could retaliate against Chinese fabs, except that the 
leading edge ones are owned by big name Western companies.
Or China could launch a war of attrition against the US navy over a long 
period of time in that area that could quyite easily escalate to the use 
of tactical nukes.

More plausibly however, is the use of that $600billion to force the US 
to lean on Taiwan very heavily.

-- 
Dirk

The Consensus:-
The political party for the new millenium
http://www.theconsensus.org



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