[extropy-chat] Taiwan

[Samantha Atkins]

On Mar 30, 2005, at 8:05 PM, Dirk Bruere wrote:

> Dan Clemmensen wrote:
>
>> Taiwan is the home of several very large Semiconductor Fab companies.
>> Each company runs several leading-edge wafer Fabs, in total 
>> comprising a
>> substantial percentage of the world's modern semiconductor fabrication
>> capability.  Any disruption of the output of these fabs will have a 
>> bigger
>> effect on the world economy than a a major disruption in a major 
>> oil-producing
>> country. A major new fab costs about $4B. An earthquake that shakes a 
>> fab can
>> destroy all work in progress even if no capital equipment is damaged. 
>> Work in
>> progress can amount to $250M per fab. A slightly more severe 
>> earthquake can disrupt
>> power, causing loss of work in progress plus loss of certain 
>> expensive capital
>> equipment ( what are "quartz tubes" and why do they die when power is 
>> lost?)
>> Conclusion: an invasion of Taiwan is a lot more serious than it at 
>> first appears.
>> a single nuke in the wrong place will disrupt the world economy.
>>
> As would a few dozen cruise missiles or IRBMs loaded with HE aimed at 
> such high value targets.
> Of course, the US could retaliate against Chinese fabs, except that 
> the leading edge ones are owned by big name Western companies.
> Or China could launch a war of attrition against the US navy over a 
> long period of time in that area that could quyite easily escalate to 
> the use of tactical nukes.
>
>

Seems to me that the way the dollar is tottering about and deep 
systemic US economic weaknesses are more than sufficient reason for 
many countries to move away from FRNs to the degree and at a speed that 
doesn't shoot themselves in the foot.  There is evidence of movement 
from FRNs to hard assets by some countries.  Such would seem only 
prudent.    Of course Bush will probably play it that all these 
countries are attacking us because we are "so good" once the next load 
of major economic woes hits.

China can grab Taiwan at any time and we will do very little in 
response.   We are much too inter-dependent.  Too much of the 
manufacturing we depend on is in China or Taiwan or near neighbors in 
the region.  I doubt very much under current conditions that we could 
win such a war.   If we stop China from grabbing Taiwan I think it will 
be with carrots rather than sticks.

War when it comes ill be about energy (oil) imho.

- samantha