[extropy-chat] Taiwan

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, Mar 31, 2005 at 01:55:32PM +0100, Dirk Bruere wrote:

> >Do you have a specific scenario, suggesting how exactly Moore (assuming, it
> >will hold up for the next 15 years) will result in the Singularity?
> >
> Looking at what's being cooked up in the labs now leads me to believe 
> that Moore's Law (approximately) will continue beyond 15yrs.

Ok, it *does* look good; I wouldn't bet on it, though. There are some
unresolved issues (e.g. leak currents and power dissipation density), and 
Moore *will* have a discontinuity around 2012..2015, 
unless molecular electronics is there just in time to take the torch. Right
now (2005) molecular electronics is just a lab curiosity, so naturally it's
not obvious a decade is enough to make ready for the fab.

> Anyway, at its crudest one could take a Human brain, slice it submicron 
> thin, map all its neurons/axions etc and use that in a simulation. That 
> would take quite a bit of computer power.

Yes, with current methods that would take quite a lot of computing power. Way
more computing power than we have by 2015 in a large installation. 

Even if we knew, how to extract the relevant information (we don't), and had
a system able to simulate the relevant aspects (we don't).

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
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