[extropy-chat] FWD [U-Tapao] Re: Debate on Peak Oil]

[Terry W. Colvin]

I used the same logic when I took a trip to Texas to see my son and his 
family. It was 2000 miles round trip, say my car averaged 25 miles to 
the gallon, so it took 80 gallons. If gas was 2.20 average, instead of 
1.50, I have .70 cents a gallon times 80 gallons = $56.00. I don't like 
it, but I am not changing my plans for $56.00.
Jay Cole

John Ellis <> wrote:

    I've thought about this myself.   I drive my 10 mpg pickup about
    10,000 miles per year, which at 2.29 p/gal costs me 190.00 per month
    average.  At 1.75 p/gal I was paying an average of 119.00 p/mo.  This
    equates to gas costing me an average of 71.00 more dollars per/mo now
    than a year ago.  Is that worth trading vehicles?  I think not.  Using
    the same math, I drive my 8 mpg motor home about 3000 miles each
    summer.  I will pay about 200.00 more dollars this summer than I did
    last summer for gas.  Is it worth getting rid of the motor home?  I
    think not.

    John Ellis

    On 5/4/05, Terry W. Colvin <fortean1 at mindspring.com> wrote:
     > [Forwarding from the Extropians list, a British reply to rising gas
     > prices... -Terry]
     >
     > On 4/29/05, "Hal Finney" wrote:>
     > > Let's suppose that gas goes up to $5/gallon, and average distance
     > > travelled for personal vehicles drops from 20000 to 15000 miles
    per year.
     > > An SUV gets maybe 15 mpg, so that is 1000 gallons or $5000 per
    year.
     > > Now you want to sell that SUV and replace it with a hybrid getting
     > > 30 mpg and selling for $25000.  You'll save $2500/year in gas
    costs.
     > > But the SUV is practically worthless in this environment and
    has little
     > > resale value.  That means it's going to take ten years to pay
    off your
     > > investment in the new car, with your savings on gas.  That's
    not a very
     > > attractive proposition.
     > >
     > > Of course, it's also possible that Peak Oilers are wrong, gas
    won't go
     > > up to $5/gallon and that all those people buying SUVs are not
    idiots.
     > > Ultimately, car purchasers are responding to the price signals they
     > > receive by looking at gas prices.  This gets back to the point
    I have
     > > made before, that if the smart money thought oil was going to
    go through
     > > the roof in a few years, it would already be bid up.  Oil would
    already be
     > > high in anticipation of future shortages; gas prices would
    already be high
     > > for the same reason; and people would already have stopped
    buying SUVs.
     > >
     > > It's the invisible hand at work.  The fact that this is not
    happening,
     > > that people are still buying low mileage vehicles, is not evidence
     > > of irrationality. Rather it is direct, visible evidence that
    Peak Oil
     > > predictions of high oil prices are simply wrong.
     > >
     >
     > Hmmm. Well, here in the UK the current gas price is around 0.86
    UKP per litre.
     > Now for the technical bit.
     > UKP = 1.89 USD,  1 US gallon = 3.785 litres
     > So the current UK gas price is about 0.86 x 3.785 x 1.89 = 6.152
    USD per gallon.
     >
     > $5/gallon is cheap! Send it over here!
     >
     > Most of the gas price in the UK is tax, of course. But this price
     > level has made little difference to the public's love affair with the
     > automobile. It doesn't seem to matter what it costs or how many are
     > killed on the roads, we must have our cars.
     >
     > The price will have to go a lot higher before it will have much
     > effect. We have toll charges in some city centres, some bridges, some
     > roads, extortionate parking charges, speeding camera fines, parking
     > fines, innumerable traffic law infringement fines, insurance charges,
     > servicing and repair charges, depreciation, and so on. People will
     > complain, but they still pay up and keep their car.
     >
     > It will need a change of mindset (or a good alternative) before
    car use reduces.
     >
     > BillK



-- 
"Only a zit on the wart on the heinie of progress." Copyright 1992, Frank Rice


Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
     Alternate: < fortean1 at msn.com >
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