[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

Marc Geddes marc_geddes at yahoo.co.nz
Thu May 12 04:24:23 UTC 2005

>Guys help me eff this real-life effing problem:
>I build 150 droobs and use 131 of them in my freem. 
>I test the remaining 19 spares destructively and
>find that all are good.  From that information only,
>what is the probability that all 131 droobs are good?

The probability that all remaining 131 droobs are good
is around:

1/118 (0.0085)  Pretty small.

My hackers intuition beats Eli's super genius again!

Seriously, far too many people here have a Bayesian
fetish.  Believe me, Bayes is not the be all and end
all.  Some of you Bayesians are in for a tremendous
shock when you finally learn that deductive reasoning
cannot possibly be incorporated into Bayesian


THE BRAIN is wider than the sky,  
  For, put them side by side,  
The one the other will include  
  With ease, and you beside. 

-Emily Dickinson

'The brain is wider than the sky'


Please visit my web-site:

Mathematics, Mind and Matter


Find local movie times and trailers on Yahoo! Movies.

More information about the extropy-chat mailing list