[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

[Marc Geddes]

>Guys help me eff this real-life effing problem:
>
>I build 150 droobs and use 131 of them in my freem. 
>I test the remaining 19 spares destructively and
>find that all are good.  From that information only,
>what is the probability that all 131 droobs are good?


The probability that all remaining 131 droobs are good
is around:

1/118 (0.0085)  Pretty small.


My hackers intuition beats Eli's super genius again!
;)

Seriously, far too many people here have a Bayesian
fetish.  Believe me, Bayes is not the be all and end
all.  Some of you Bayesians are in for a tremendous
shock when you finally learn that deductive reasoning
cannot possibly be incorporated into Bayesian
induction.


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THE BRAIN is wider than the sky,  
  For, put them side by side,  
The one the other will include  
  With ease, and you beside. 

-Emily Dickinson

'The brain is wider than the sky'
http://www.bartleby.com/113/1126.html

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Mathematics, Mind and Matter
http://www.riemannai.org/

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