[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

[spike]

> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Marc Geddes
... 
> The probability that all remaining 131 droobs are good
> is around:
> 
> 1/118 (0.0085)  Pretty small.
> 
> 
> My hackers intuition beats Eli's super genius again!
> ;)
> 
> Seriously, far too many people here have a Bayesian
> fetish.  Believe me, Bayes is not the be all and end
> all.  Some of you Bayesians are in for a tremendous
> shock when you finally learn that deductive reasoning
> cannot possibly be incorporated into Bayesian
> induction.
> 

Oh boy, here we go.  {8^D

Marc, I cannot reproduce your answer.  Please elaborate.

spike