[extropy-chat] Care Economy?

Brett Paatsch bpaatsch at bigpond.net.au
Tue May 17 13:36:03 UTC 2005

Kevin Freels wrote:

> An interesting atricle at cnn today. Curious to your thoughts.
> http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/05/12/visionary.pearson/index.html

The article starts :

   "Between 2015 and 2020 we will have machines that will be
    comparable to humans in terms of intelligence -- or maybe even
    significantly more intelligent."

So in 10 to 15 years from now.  But based on projections not

If a single AI could be constructed in that time period and protected
by a patent, then copied ad-infinitum, what effect do you imagine that
would have economically and geo-politically?

Suddenly there is a workforce that works for nothing but is owned 
by one person or group of persons (like a corporation) and can be
produced at cost of materials. 

This scenario doesn't look politically credible to me even if it was 
technologically possible. To many variables besides technology have
to be assumed to have no impact on the technological realisation time.

Amongst those variables that seem to be assumed away are that there
would be no effective political resistance to such a technological
development that would revolutionise the way human societies organise
themselves economically and politically now.  

How realistic is it to assume that there would be no effective political
resistance in that sort of time frame? Surely we know enough about
how fast ordinary people that vote in elections that can control laws
that effect intellectual property can learn when we only have to project
forward another three or four US Presidential electoral periods. 

10 - 15 years can seem either like a long time or a short time
depending on how you view it. 

10 years from now, human level AI?  I'm sceptical, I don't think the
AI folk know enough today technically to climb that sort of curve in
that sort of timeframe. But even if they did, or do, the politics will 
almost certainly effect the timeframe of any roll out that would have
such revolutionary consequences.

Brett Paatsch
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