[extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?

[spike]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Lorrey
> Sent: Tuesday, May 24, 2005 5:28 PM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?
> 
> As spike has amply demonstrated in the past, the numbers aren't there
> for ethanol. Beyond being a smog reducing additive, it is too expensive
> to use as a primary fuel, and producing enough of it to fuel our cars
> would take more arable land than we have...
> Mike Lorrey


Mike you took it farther than I did.  My notion is that a
gasoline engine can be made to operate on alcohol only.  But
running the entire world on renewables such as ethanol
will take a loooot of land, it will require smarter use
of waterways, (lots of dams and pipes).  We will surely resort 
to a large portion of the population getting around in those
vehicles I described: very small four-wheeled rigs, one
seat, typically 100 to 400cc single cylinder, couple hundred
kilogram mass, 100 or more miles per gallon of ethanol, 
(40 or more km per liter).

I am not claiming it cannot be done, only that it won't
be comfortable, and we won't go nearly as fast as we do
today.  But life as we know it does not end even if oil 
becomes too scarce to burn in our SUVs.  Most running
around can be eliminated with appropriate use of 
information pipes.

That being said, I expect the day is still several
decades away when most of us putt around in rigs that 
would scarcely cut it as a golf cart today.  Eventually
we shall need to make do with renewables, but I don't
expect it is upon us, even with China and India coming
up quickly.

spike