[extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?

[Mike Lorrey]

As spike has amply demonstrated in the past, the numbers aren't there
for ethanol. Beyond being a smog reducing additive, it is too expensive
to use as a primary fuel, and producing enough of it to fuel our cars
would take more arable land than we have.

--- "kevinfreels.com" <kevin at kevinfreels.com> wrote:
> I'm curious. Does anyone know of anythign that couldn;t be modified
> to run
> on ethanol? What about pure ethanol? I know that currently ethanol is
> basically poisoned so people can't get drunk off of it and gasoline
> is part
> of the poison mixture, but is the gasoline itself necessary? Can
> aviation
> fuel and be made of ethanol? Or more correctly, can sufficient
> aviation
> engines be built for use with ethanol? Has anyone tested an ethanol
> jet
> engine or does ethanol just not carry enough energy?
> 
> I really don;t know a lot about ethanol, but it seems to me that if
> we are
> subsidizing farmers to not grow corn, and at the same time oil is
> getting
> too expensive, maybe we should be putting a lot more emphasis on
> ethanol
> production. There's no need to shrink the automobile to a point where
> people
> hate using them. It may work in europe, but Americans love their
> cars.
> 
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Mike Lorrey" <mlorrey at yahoo.com>
> To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Sent: Monday, May 23, 2005 11:34 PM
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?
> 
> 
> >
> > --- Hal Finney <hal at finney.org> wrote:
> > >
> > > Of course, "today's high prices" are actually down quite a bit in
> the
> > > past few weeks.  Oil hit $58/bbl and is now at $48.  There seems
> to
> > > be a general sentiment that $40 will be the new floor, but there
> are
> > > no guarantees about that.  A year ago it was at $25 and nobody
> would
> > > have predicted a doubling.  These new players in the Canadian oil
> > > fields are hoping and praying that the price holds up.
> >
> > If oil floors out at $40, there is no peak oil... $25.00/bbl, which
> I
> > predicted would be the price a month after the start of the Iraq
> war
> > (as it happened) was followed with a 40% int'l market devaluation
> of
> > the dollar as many national governments delinked their currencies
> from
> > the dollar, shifting to the euro, so $25 then is $35.00 now on
> > international markets.
> >
> > This means that at a $40.00 price floor, oil prices have risen in
> > reality $5.00 in two years. This is in reality 5-6% annual
> inflation in
> > energy prices. Significantly above average, but nothing to write
> home
> > about. With current $48 prices, that means a real rise in oil
> prices of
> > $8.00 (you need to devaluate the actual price rise by 40% as well
> to
> > get a good comparison to then-year dollars.)
> >
> > Assuming China, Korea, and Japan don't individually or together
> dump
> > the dollar en masse (Korea has already made motions and China is
> > already selling off dollars in a 'basket diversification' move), we
> > shouldn't see prices rise higher than that. Of course, I wouldn't
> put
> > it past them. The faster they (China) price us out of the middle
> > eastern oil market, and leave us working on our domestic supplies,
> the
> > sooner they get an advantage in the eventual face-off over Taiwan.
> >
> > Mike Lorrey
> > Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
> > "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
> > It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
> >                                       -William Pitt (1759-1806)
> > Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
> >
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Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com


		
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