[extropy-chat] The Proactionary Principle: comments encouraged on almost-final version

[Adrian Tymes]

--- Hal Finney <hal at finney.org> wrote:
> Some of the
> advice
> in the proposed document amounts to creating inside-type forecasts,
> i.e. setting up scenarios, looking at probable outcomes, and making
> decisions on that basis.  The paper we discussed last month shows
> that
> this forecasting methodology is not very good, unfortunately.  It is
> prone to cognitive biases of many kinds.
> 
> Unfortunately it is not clear whether there is a better alternative
> for predicting the future.

Practical optimism: use what there is.  Try to make it work for the
best, but don't pine for what doesn't exist, unless you can help make
it exist.