[extropy-chat] survey on fringe ideas: politics

[spike]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of "Hal Finney"
> Sent: Friday, October 28, 2005 11:27 AM
> To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] survey on fringe ideas: politics
> 
> There is one thing I find interesting about this story, relating to
> these questions from Spike:
> 
> > OK now.  Do you think that
> >
> > 1.  Rove leaked the CIA agent's identity to get revenge
> > 2.  Libby leaked the CIA agent's identity to get revenge
> > 3.  Cheney leaked the CIA agent's identity to get revenge
> 
> The interesting point to me is that again and again in reports on this
> issue, the motivation described is not, as Spike has it, for revenge...Hal


Hal makes many interesting observations.  My interest in 
this particular story is to demonstrate a means of establishing
a correlation between knowledge of a particular event or
concept with a particular end of the belief spectrum.

(Apologies to Brett for using the term belief.  I don't know
how else to express this meme.)

I included the choices 1 thru 3 to give the test-taker the
option of expressing that particular extreme.  

Is there another test case we can use?  The evolution
example isn't ideal, since we have no way to completely
and finally determine the outcome.  We who are reading
this already think that evolution is correct.  Should
a deep manly voice come booming out of the heavens
tomorrow explaining that evolution is correct, it 
wouldn't answer every question; it might actually
create more than it answers.

We need test cases where we can determine a person's
knowledge, then see if the knowers predictions are better
than the know-notters.


The remainder of this post is about U.S. politics, so
do hit delete now if you take no particular interest.


Hal wrote:  ...my theory is that Wilson was threatened 
before publication that if he went forward, his wife 
would be outed.

spike:  But Wilson wasn't cleared.  He theoretically had
no way of knowing his wife was a secret agent.  If he
did know this, this implicates Plame Valerie Plame as 
the most likely leaker.  

Counter theory: Wilson wasn't cleared, so he shouldn't
have known his wife's CIA status.  When he read that
Plame Valerie Plame was "a CIA operative" he assumed 
this was the same thing as a secret operative.  But the
Novak column doesn't actually say she is a secret
operative.  He then went berserk, perhaps out of anger,
accusing ROVE of outing his wife, Rove who never really 
did have much to do with any of this sordid affair.  

Reason: Rove works for Card who works for Bush.  Libby 
works for Cheney, and Cheney was involved because Wilson 
claimed (probably out of ignorance, possibly with some
darker motive) that Cheney had sent him to Nigeria.  After
Wilson claimed that Cheney had sent him, Cheney and
Libby probably tried to find out who is this Wilson
character and who sent him to Nigeria.  They learned
that Plame Valerie Plame is a supervisor at the CIA and that
she had suggested him (still mysterious, but it looks
suspicious, which would in itself make Wilson questionable).

I wouldn't be surprised if Libby (but not Rove, who 
was not really deeply involved that I can tell) arranged
for reporters to learn that Plame Valerie Plame worked 
at the CIA and had sent Mr. Plame Valerie Plame to Nigeria.

I am still a bit puzzled by the fact that the actual
indictment does not accuse anyone of leaking anything.  It
is all about Libby's claims regarding his conversations
with reporters, which would have been legal if he did
not reveal her covert status.

spike