[extropy-chat] peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

[user]

The debate over peak oil and its related causes/effects/probabilities has
been discussed quite a bit on this list.  I am curious if anyone has
looked at the likelihood of peak oil simply by observing the actions of
the parties that are likely to have the most perfect knowledge of the
subject ?

I was reading a text on game theory and related subjects recently and was
reminded of the notion that (greatly simplified) the closer one suspects
one is to the end of the game, the nastier one plays that game.

At the same time, I have noticed the US (and others?) playing nastier and
nastier at the game of oil politics over the course of my adulthood.

Certainly there are localized secrets in the oil industry, but in the
macro sense, I think it would be a good bet that the US Govt has the best
overall intelligence and knowledge of what is really happening in the
world.

Combine those two, and perhaps you have some good (albeit
indirect) evidence that peak oil is coming.  Or at least that our leaders
think it is.

Before you respond, please note that I actually have no opinion on peak
oil - I have digested many good arguments on either side, and have
resigned myself to "further study" - as much as it can be said that
someone has no prejudice on a particular subject, I will claim that for
myself in relation to peak oil.

With that in mind ... comments ?