[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

[Robin Hanson]

At 06:21 AM 9/7/2005, Samantha Atkins wrote:
>>If Peak Oil were widely seen as a likely scenario in that time frame,
>>we would see increasing oil prices out in the 2008 to 2011 time frame.
>>For technical reasons, these markets tend not to have large price
>>differentials across the delivery years (basically because it is
>>easy to move oil deliveries backwards and forwards in time), so
>>we would expect high future prices to drag up present-day prices.  ...
>>But this is not what we see.  While oil prices have risen steadily
>>for the past few years, they have not been led up by future prices.
>
>I am not sure that analysis is valid although I don't see an
>immediate flaw.  But I do not find it a convincing arugmunt that Peak
>Oil is not at hand.  Look back in time to how unanmiously rosy most
>of the market was right up to and even int the dot com bust.  The
>Street can be fooled or its truthfulness seriously compromised.
>There is also evidence that many parts of the Market are grossly
>manipulated.  See the Sprott report for some of this evidence at
>http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/TheVisibleHand.pdf

So why are you not speculating in these markets to make all the money
you think is there to be taken.  Or are you also one of those fools?


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323