[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

[Brian Atkins]

Robin Hanson wrote:
> 
> So why are you not speculating in these markets to make all the money
> you think is there to be taken.  Or are you also one of those fools?
> 

I'm sure there are plenty of "peak oilers" who are indeed already spending their 
own money on futures, although I bet they also are stocking up on gold and other 
end-of-the-world items.

However, they seem to still be a small minority of the overall market. The key 
question in my mind is: how useful really is it to look to the current futures 
markets as key predictors of peak oil when it seems that the majority (or "big 
money") players seem to trade based on a six month or at most year out view?

Looking at the stock markets, it is often said that they lead recessions by six 
to nine months. There are few players, and not enough to influence the overall 
level of the market, who buy and sell based on views much farther out. Sure they 
may say they are buying based on far future earnings in some cases such as 
during the bubble, but as soon as near-term real world data screws up those 
views then the majority players finally act.

So are we going to see the majority of the futures market sit around and not 
really drive up prices until we are within 6 months or less of a real energy crunch?
-- 
Brian Atkins
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
http://www.singinst.org/