[extropy-chat] Reading "The Singularity is Near"

[Reason]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org]On Behalf Of Brian Atkins

> It's been a few days since I read the book, but here's a few
> quick thoughts:
>
> 1. In the first part of your message you seem to be discussing
> complexity in
> general, and whether it will become too much. Didn't K
> specifically address this
> common objection in one of the latter sections of his book? Do
> you have specific
> complaints about his ideas there?

It's quite possible I wasn't being clear enough; rushed would be one way to
describe my time at the moment. I talk generally about complexity in the
wider context first and then specifically the areas in which I see limits on
the acceleration of the advancing process of complexity management (and thus
by extension techological progress).

> 2. For most of the leadup to the Singularity, it doesn't really
> require shorter
> turnarounds in human-centric business practices does it? For
> instance, for
> Moore's Law to continue all we need is that the existing business flow of
> releasing new processes/chip designs continue every 18 months or
> so. So I'm not
> sure what you're getting at - the trends in the technologies
> needed to achieve
> his human-enhancement timelines do not require anything more than
> "business as
> usual" as far as I see.

No, they don't. I'm disagreeing about the time taken, specifically because
of what I see as limits on exponential growth in certain areas and certain
aspects of development, not the end result. I don't think that we've really
hit these limits hard yet, hence the past projects of exponential growth are
not going to project forward all that well.

But it's not as though I have a research team and PCs full of data to back
me up on that claim. Apply salt and skeptical analysis as needed.

> 3. Later, very close to the Singularity, there may be a natural
> speed up in
> business processes simply because by that time, if you buy into
> K's scenario,
> there will be upgraded humans and also post-Turing AIs, or some
> mix of those
> that he envisions working together to move even faster and think
> even bigger
> thoughts. So, essentially by reaching this point in technology it
> can be used to
> move past the human-centric barriers you are discussing.

Yes, correct. Again, not the general frame of the scenario, just the timing
I'm poking at. But that timing is all-important when it comes to deciding
which wheel to get behind.

Reason