[extropy-chat] I keep asking myself...just curious

[Robert Bradbury]

In response to Anna's questions to Russell (below)...

A. The Singularity isn't "fiction", certainly not "science fiction" [1].
Briefly, "The Singularity" is simply a label for the time when human
evolution becomes so rapid it significantly exceeds our ability to grasp it
(and potentially manage it).  Read the wiki entry for more [2].  The idea is
based on concepts of (a) the determinants of the rate of change (evolution)
of our "reality" and (b) the mathematical derivative of the rate of change
(the rate of change of the rate of change).  So formally studying the
singularity has a basis in the study of rates of evolution and determinants
of the rates of evolution -- and also consequences of changes in those rates
& determinants.  So it isn't a religion (which generally try to explain
things we observe by invoking some "magical" power).  It also is *not*
fiction if one believes Kurzweil's numbers.

Side examples -- rapid rates of change are usually viewed as "disasters"
(tsunamis, earthquakes, your house burning down, etc.)  On the other hand
rapid some semi-rapid rates of change, e.g. humanity going from "putting a
human on the moon is impossible" to "we put a human on the moon every few
months" can be viewed as producing positive benefits.  People concerned with
"The Singularity" are worried that the rate of change will reach the point
where it ends up being a monumental disaster rather than a positive benefit.

B. Cryonics is not "science fiction".  It is simply a technology which
exists today that allows long term *preservation* of the information that
bodies (or more importantly minds) contain.  It stands in significant
contrast to being cremated or buried which are disposal methods which have
the general result of *destroying* the information in bodies & minds. People
who follow the cryonics path generally believe that the technology will
exist someday to allow reanimation and/or reconstruction of their mind
and/or body.  Cryonic reanimtation does *not* depend on science fiction,
religion *or* the singularity.  It simply depends on the continued existence
of the facilities maintaining the bodies in a suspended state and our
eventual development of technologies which allow the recovery of the
information preserved in those bodies.  The only interaction between The
Singularity and cryonics is that *if* The Singularity happens, cryonic
reanimation is likely to be feasible within decades rather than perhaps a
century or two.

C. The Zodiac (Astrology) is an attempt to explain the past and probable
futures based on an arbitrary system which was invented thousands of years
ago (and changed as more planets were discovered).  As I understand it it
requires "magical" physics to explain itself.  [My Catholic grandmother was
very big on astrology (try that for mixing two rather different explanations
for reality...)].  The Singularity on the other hand *depends* largely on
the *real* physics upon which our reality is based.  It is in large part the
physics of micrometer and nanometer sizes, Maxwell's Laws, quantum
mechanics, etc. which drive things like Moore's "Law" which in turn are
major reasons for believing in "The Singularity".

Anna, without being critical (since I view your questions as useful because
they encourage a community with its own "reality" to consider the
"realities" in which much of humanity lives) you may wish to do two things
-- (a) start with wikipedia -- it is usually quite good as a resource on
these things since its pages are semi-peer reviewed; (b) if you take an idea
which is in your head -- ask yourself is it really reproducible or
verifiable?  If I hold a ball in my hand and let go and you hold a ball in
your hand and let go will they *both* fall?  If so we are both on the planet
Earth (where the physical law of gravity exerts a lot of influence) and both
using balls that are not filled with helium.  If on the other hand your
astrologer says you are going to fall in love today and my astrologer says I
am going to fall in love today what is the probability that we will indeed
both fall in love?  Then what is the probability that 1000 people told by
their astrologers that they will fall in love today actually do?  (501 out
of 1000 falling in love doesn't make Astrology true because one has to take
into account the power of suggestion and statistical variation [tomorrow
only 499 people may fall in love].)

The Singularity is largely about relatively high probabilities (and their
positive and negative consequences).  So too is hitting the accelerator
instead of the brake while driving your car (maybe you will have an accident
depending upon what is in front of you, maybe you  will not).  But with the
ball dropping experiment *and* the car *and* The Singularity  we can explain
how known physical laws (and their consequences) produce specific results.
Astrology cannot do that, neither can most religions.

Robert

1. Science fiction should be divided into two categories -- that which
requires violation of known laws of physics and that which does not.  For
example creating wormholes to achieve faster-than-light travel is skating on
the very edge between these two categories.  There is a body of older
"science fiction" which is now "science reality".  There is also a body of
science fiction literature which 999 out of 1000 physicists will say relies
on things which will never be possible (except in a virtual reality where
one changes the laws of physics).

2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On 4/17/06, Anne-Marie Taylor <femmechakra at yahoo.ca> wrote:
>
> *Russell Wallace <russell.wallace at gmail.com>* wrote:
>
> You can try asking that one on the list.
>
> On 4/17/06, Anne-Marie Taylor <femmechakra at yahoo.ca > wrote:
> >
> >  Ok, that's fine:)
> > Then why bother ignoring religion if it's only to conjure up science
> > fiction?
> > What's the Singularity then? A new theory of fiction?
> > I'm confused?
> > If there are no real facts other than cryonics at the present moment,
> > then
> > what's the difference between the zodiac and Singularity?
> >
> >
>
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