[extropy-chat] Popperian psi challenge
thespike at satx.rr.com
Tue Dec 26 23:24:42 UTC 2006
At 05:21 PM 12/26/2006 -0500, JKC wrote:
>what experimental result would make you conclude
>that you were wrong and psi research is just a big waste of time?
With inherently low probability events, it's difficult to set a
Popperian challenge. Famously, when low daily doses of aspirin were
administered to people liable to heart attacks, the finding was less
than 1 in 50 for heart attack in the placebo condition and less than
1 in a 100 with aspirin. How do we know that aspirin isn't just a big
waste of time? You look at an awfully big pool of people, and hope
like hell that the results aren't being compromised by the way in
which differential amounts of bedside manner aren't confounding the
looked-for aspirin effect, etc.
Since psi is observed to be stochastic, with very poorly understood
operating characteristics, it would be misleading to place too much
trust in any single experiment or "psi-operator". But I would be
rather surprised if Joseph McMoneagle's accuracy rate dropped away to
the null level in future remote viewing tests, or that anomalous
apparently-precognitive prestimulus responses failed to be found in
future experiments by Dr. Edwin May.
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