[extropy-chat] Email Postage

[Adrian Tymes]

--- Samantha Atkins <sjatkins at mac.com> wrote:
> So I can get guaranteed spam deliveries that would be filtered  
> today?  Hmm.  So roughly as long as
> 
> avg_pos_value * percent_response >  (1 - percent_response) *  
> message_cost
> 
> it is profitable to send spam.   And I am guaranteed delivery thus  
> raising effective percent_response.  Such a deal.   Do I have that  
> right?

Actually, it's just
avg_pos_value * percent_response > message_cost
because you have to pay for the message even when they respond.
Running the numbers - let's take the high end of the costs,
where message_cost = $0.01.  percent_response (where the reader
does not merely respond, but sends the spammer money) might
optimistically be 0.001, even with guaranteed delivery.  So that
means that if each time you swindle someone, avg_pos_value (the
money you get on average) > $10, it's profitable.  Most of the
scams I've seen appear to be trying to swindle people for > $10.

I'm not too certain about that percent_response (again, because
it's the % of the time the reader winds up sending the spammer
money, not merely the % of the time the reader merely reads or
even just responds to the spam).  But if that assumption is
correct, then the math still seems to work out in favor of the
spammer...