[extropy-chat] Failure of low-fat diet

[Robin Hanson]

At 10:48 AM 2/23/2006, you wrote:
>On 2/23/06, Robin Hanson <<mailto:rhanson at gmu.edu>rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:
>The "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" heuristic is
>reasonable when "extraordinary claims" are taken to be those with a
>mountain of evidence supporting them.   If, however, any claim that
>goes contrary to your expectations counts as an "extraordinary
>claim", this becomes a recipe for just always preserving your expectations.
>
>Oh, absolutely. In this case there is mountains of evidence 
>supporting the idea that disease - specifically, infectious diseases 
>of the sort that have now been mostly eradicated in the developed 
>world - used to be the primary cause of death; the requirement for 
>extraordinary proof is for a claim that is inconsistent with this 
>evidence, not merely for one that goes contrary to my expectations.

Oh, sure, it is very clear we live longer, and that the proximate 
cause is that diseases that used to kill us no longer do.   But ask 
yourself where the mountain of evidence is that this fact is best 
explained by the facts that we now have better drugs, doctors, 
sewers, and water supplies.



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323