[extropy-chat] WSJ: A Cold Calculus Leads Cryonauts To Put Assetson Ice

[Keith M. Elis]

Robert Bradbury:

> If its being invested it makes a big difference whether you are
> investing it in a nanotech investment fund (which is *really*
> investing in nanotechnology and not nanohype) vs. say U.S.
> automobile manufacturers or in the not so distant future the
> "old-mentality" phone companies.
>
> It also makes a difference whether one confines the investment
> to U.S. $ or opts for an international currency mix.  That in
> turn tends to relate to how hard (and where) one thinks various
> aspects of the singularity may hit.

The money will no doubt be well-diversified and properly managed based
on the information available at the time. Even if his average net ROR
was a fairly moderate 8% per year over 100 years, a million dollars
would be worth upwards of 2.1 billion. Another 80 years at that rate
and he's a trillionaire. (This assumes he puts it all in a
tax-shelter).  

> The path you choose determines whether you come back a rich
> person or much more likely (IMO) a relatively poor person (if
> you haven't kept up with the singularity). 

It's the singularity that this cryonics customer is betting on (whether
he knows it or not). This isn't simply an elaborate way to achieve 8%
net for 100 years. He's betting that he'll come back, he'll be himself,
he'll have his faculties, and he'll be able to adjust without going
insane. A singularity is the big payoff for him. It means he gets to
come back at all.

But more to your point, how do *you* propose to become rich leading up
to and during a singularity if not by investing in some kind of
profit-making enterprise out there in the economy?

<snip>

> Designing a *good* investment strategy for what is coming and
> taking into accout the various reanimation scenarios is *not*
> easy and I would argue that most people who would be tasked
> with doing it (today) are likely to significantly underperform
> the rate of growth that the singularity may bring.  [How many
> investment strategies detail precisely *when* you turn the
> money over to a self-evolving, improving AI investment fund 
> manager?]

You see, you bring up this term 'underperform' but it's meaningless
without a benchmark. Which benchmark do you want to use? Since the dawn
of the markets, it has always made sense to index the largest companies
in the market to get an idea of how the economy overall is behaving.
You don't want to use existing indices, so what other benchmark do you
propose?

Keith