[extropy-chat] Bayes, betting and derivatives

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Damien Sullivan wrote:
> In light of Bayesian wannabes coming to agree on matters of fact, would
> a pure population of Bayesian wannabes have use for a derivatives
> market, or more generally for making bets?  Seems the point of a bet
> (outside of games of pure chance) is the belief that you know more about
> an outcome than the other guy.  But if a Bayesian offers a bet and
> another Bayesian takes it, seems like both should pause for further
> thought.  Actually, simple knowledge that someone was offering a bet
> should make the second Bayesian pause to reconsider.

Sounds right to me.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence