[extropy-chat] Bayes, betting and derivatives

[Acy Stapp]

On 6/6/06, Samantha Atkins <sjatkins at mac.com> wrote:
>
> Because your market theory, fundamental and technical analysis may be
> more accurate at least in the short  run.   This notion that exactly
> the same knowledge, mathematically rendered the same is available to
> all players and they all have effectively equal skill and
> intelligence to boot is a far-fetched fantasy.
>
> - samantha

Indeed one of the key evolutionary drivers of human intelligence was
hiding and detecting cheating behavior.  Cheating will always be an
aspect of intelligence, because cheaters gain an advantage in the
short-run and there will always be discounting of the future. In any
betting scenario you get a huge growth in informational complexity
when you recursively take into account the motives and truthfulness of
the participants. ("Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on
the line!")
-- 
Acy Stapp

"When I'm working on a problem, I never think about beauty. I think
only how to solve the problem. But when I have finished, if the
solution is not beautiful, I know it is wrong." -- R. Buckminster
Fuller (1895 - 1983)