[extropy-chat] Bayes, betting and derivatives

[Robin Hanson]

At 05:14 AM 6/6/2006, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>On Mon, Jun 05, 2006 at 02:39:06PM -0700, Damien Sullivan wrote:
>
> > an outcome than the other guy.  But if a Bayesian offers a bet and
> > another Bayesian takes it, seems like both should pause for further
> > thought.  Actually, simple knowledge that someone was offering a bet
> > should make the second Bayesian pause to reconsider.
>
>Perfect knowledge about the real world doesn't exist. No two bases
>of knowledge are alike. I must be missing something, since I don't
>see this as a problem.

No one mentioned any assumptions of perfect knowledge, or perfectly
identical knowledge.   And such assumptions are not required for
Bayesians, or Bayesian wannabes, to realize that both sides can't be
right in expecting to win a bet.


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323