[extropy-chat] Are vaccinations useless? was Re: Failure of low-fat diet
sjatkins at mac.com
Tue Mar 7 10:37:43 UTC 2006
It would take a LOT of airtight evidence to avoid looking like a
crank on this one.
On Mar 6, 2006, at 7:16 PM, Robin Hanson wrote:
> At 05:07 PM 3/6/2006, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>> What is in your opinion the percent contribution of,
>> for example, smallpox vaccinations to the currently observed
>> of lifetime prevalence of that disease? Please use the historical
>> on lifetime prevalence in e.g. Europe, compare with current numbers
>> and tell me how much, if any, of the reduction is attributable to
> Start with this study as a reference point:
> <http://www.milbank.org/720203.html>Improving Health: Measuring
> Effects of Medical Care, by John P. Bunker, Howard S. Frazier, and
> Frederick Mosteller, Milbank Quarterly, 72(2), 1994.
> I don't think the authors are critical enough, in that they seem to
> give medicine the benefit of any doubts about medical
> effectiveness. But even they can only come up with a few years of
> life to credit to medicine. So even they must conclude that most
> improvements in lifespan have come from other causes.
> For smallpox they credit medicine with giving 3-6 mo. life per person
> on average, which I'd say is too high.
> To answer your exact question I'd guess 1 to 10% of the reduction is
> attributable to vaccination.
> Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
> Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
> MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
> 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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