[extropy-chat] Fwd: Are vaccinations useless? was Re: Failure of low-fat diet
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Fri Mar 10 22:05:08 UTC 2006
On 3/6/06, Robin Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote about the impact of
vaccination on the prevalence of smallpox:
> To answer your exact question I'd guess 1 to 10% of the reduction is
> attributable to vaccination.
### To avoid misunderstanding, are you saying that even without
vaccinations against smallpox, the lifetime prevalence of that
particular disease today would be only about 1% to 10% of the lifetime
prevalence observed in the years 1500 - 1700 in Europe? This would
mean a reduction of an estimated lifetime prevalence from close to 90%
down to, say 1%, solely from the collateral effects of affluence.
If you indeed believe this, then you would need to explain how a 100%
reduction of the prevalence of smallpox occurred in all those
countries which did not achieve affluence, or even experienced
worsening of their economic circumstances, including Afganistan, China
of the Great Leap Forward period, and others.
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