[extropy-chat] "The Singularity Myth"
robert.bradbury at gmail.com
Fri Mar 17 14:43:07 UTC 2006
On 3/17/06, starman2100 at cableone.net <starman2100 at cableone.net> wrote:
> ... "hard" and "soft" take-off Singularities. And I can remember when
> people said it would happen around 2025 but the date seems to keep on
> getting pushed back. lol
It doesn't "happen" on a specific date. It just keeps getting faster and
faster. If one is adapted to it one will probably not notice the
difference. Not enough work has been done, IMO, regarding the "degree of
difficulty" of various achievements within the singularity ramp-up so it is
difficult to know which items will require 10 more years, 5 more years, 2
more years, etc.
Unfortunately, IMO, Ray tends to, at times, invoke "and then something
magical happens" instead of opting for "at this point in development we have
hit the limits the physical universe allows and progress along this path
Will the "Techno-Rapture" still save us or must we look to cryonics?
There are too many variables. I'm personally of the opinion that people in
the 40-50 age range (in 2006) are right in the middle of the probabilities.
People much younger will probably experience the the rapid ramp up of the
singularity directly. People much older will probably only experience it
from a discontinuous perspective (i.e. they will probably have to go through
one of cryonic, dehydration, vitrification or embalming processes before
they *might* be able to be brought back in one ore more active forms well
into the singularity takeoff). People in the "middle" probably stand a
50:50 chance of things happening fast enough that they get to ride the wave.
And as pointed out -- accidents which do not destroy your brain
microstructure may potentially cause a significant "down time" and are thus
a good reason for people younger than 40 to give strong consideration to
"worst case" scenarios and solutions (cryonics being among the better
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