[extropy-chat] Darwin Award

[jeffrey davis]

On 5/18/06, Samantha Atkins <sjatkins at mac.com > wrote:
>
>
>
> It is not irrelevant as the type of technology available determines the
> costs of such a project and its  feasibility.   Sufficiently advanced
> automation to accomplish this task as well as sufficient resources and
> sustaining technology may require nanotechnology and AI.  I think that it
> will.  If you think otherwise then please make your case.
>
> - samantha


You're perhaps familiar with "Advanced automation for space missions"(AASM),
a seminal work on self-replication by Freitas et al. sometimes referred to
as the 1980 NASA summer study.  A quarter century ago Freitas declared
self-replication doable, and on the moon no less, with the attendant severe
restrictions on human on-site assistance.  So it's not really my case but
Freitas's.

Engineering-wise, it's about control systems. Our current industrial system
with humans in the loop has 100 percent closure.  Replacing the humans
requires control systems.

Since 1980 we've seen how many doublings of computational capacity, which
translates into vastly cheaper (and/or vastly more capable) control systems
components?   Using Moore's law as a rough guide, in the twenty-five years
since AASM, control element costs have fallen, or capability risen, by a
factor of 10e6.

Beyond that, the obstacles to implementation remain vision, creativity, the
size of the project(very big), and perhaps political will.  Personally, I
prefer to dispense with political will and go with vision and creativity.

That said, many smart folks still contend that the problem is "too hard".
Add the daunting size of the undertaking and it becomes a non-trivial matter
to mobilize enough folks to "Just give it a try and well see if it can be
done."  That's where the creativity comes in.

Best, Jeff Davis

   "Everything's hard till you know how to do it."
                           Ray Charles
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