[extropy-chat] Superrationality

[Russell Wallace]

It occurs to me that there's an even better parallel between the PD and
Newcomb's Paradox.

Suppose a television company were to actually try to run the Newcomb
experiment today, as a game show. They can't resort to hypothetical
technology or supernatural powers; they'll presumably have to hire a
psychologist or fortune teller to interview the candidate. (The latter isn't
as irrational as it might sound - a good fortune teller needs to be a good
practical psychologist.) Suppose I'm the candidate - how could my actions on
stage when presented with the two boxes be predicted? It would appear
impossible to do it reliably, right?

Very simply. I offer to give my word that I will take only one box, in
return for the forecaster's word that the prize money will be there. On
stage, the rational course of action is then for me to take only one box,
since my word is much more important to me than $1000. The forecaster's
prediction record is supported, and I get the prize.

And if you think about it, that's just how we handle a lot of PD-type
situations in real life.
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