[extropy-chat] An advance prediction for Tuesday

[Heartland]

Eliezer:
>I offer the following advance prediction:
>
> Initially, pollsters will predict that Democrats will take the House,
> but not the Senate.
>
> When the actual election results are reported, it will turn out that
> Republicans kept control of the House by a significant margin.  There
> will be much anguished recrimination among Democrats, but few mainstream
> media sources will suggest that the election was stolen.
>
> Later, an eminent statistician will publish a study showing that there
> were significantly wider differences between polls and reported results
> in districts that use electronic voting machines.  The story will not be
> taken up by the mainstream media.  It will make a brief flurry in the
> blogosphere, then vanish.
>
> I could be wrong about all this.  I hope I am.

Yes, I've thought about this recently and came to similar conclusions although I 
don't think Republicans will take the House by a significant margin. It would just 
look too ridiculous when compared with polling data.

Another prediction. After Republicans take both House and the Senate by slim 
margins, Bush will start talking about the "political capital" again and how he 
intends to spend it.

Slawomir