[extropy-chat] A Grim Vision ...?

[Morris Johnson]

One error in  judgement is that one should not assume countries like saudi
need these high water use crops.

If one has high cost water one can for example grow large containerized
ponds of algae.

Some of this material can make food which can be processed to look and taste
like
those imported crops and some of the material can be used to fuel energy
production.

The only question is how fast can fundamental changes like this occur
and will the decision makers be able to manage the sociopolitics with their
own people
in such a crisis.

We need not look farther than the massive trial of bio-energy this year in
North American agriculture.

Fertilizer takes petroleum. Crops can go to food or fuel subject only to
market drivers.
crop Inputs are being diverted to energy over food.
Some food sectors will have to adjust economics, marketing, or simply reduce
available  food supply.
North americans will not starve in 2007, but will consumers revolt, will
changes to diet occur , will consumption patterns and
personal budget decisions adjust and if so how fast?
The other question is .. how stable a long term pattern is this.
Is it a  paradigm shifted or a fad?
Is the shift just starting with more evolution on the way  or is it more
fixed in stone?

This is a complex evolving scenario and I do not think one can discuss any
part without
referring to many ongoing feedback loops.

Lets get more comment before I elaborate further on this.

Morris Johnson





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