[ExI] fermi paradox
kevin at kevinfreels.com
Mon Dec 10 18:01:42 UTC 2007
It can't be done. Because of that, it will always be possible. The
probability can be reduced over time with more observations but it will
never be zero. I'm well aware that at some point things become so
improbable that they may as well be considered impossible because
otherwise we go down the road where anything and everything is possible
and that is just too difficult to manage. But our inability to
comprehend a something does not mean it isn't real. I would at least
wait to draw that line until we at least observed a single Earth-like
planet in a different region towards the center of the galaxy and found
life, no intelligence, and no evidence of tampering. At least we will
have doubled the sample size. But I don't need that crutch. For the sake
of ending this thread quickly, I will give it up and say that I agree -
the universe is for a fact not engineered.
So now your job just became much easier. I dropped half of my argument.
You no longer have to prove a negative. Now all you have to do is prove
to me through observation that the Drake equations are an accurate
representation of reality. That we have viewed enough of our galaxy to
determine how many stars have planets. (the equations only apply to our
galaxy and there is no reason to assume that they would apply elsewhere)
That we have found enough planets that support life to accurately
estimate how many are life supporting. That we can accurately estimate
the number of planets that will support life that actually do (Drake
used 100% - all planets that can have life will have life) Prove to me
that we have viewed enough of the galaxy to know that 1% is the odds
that intelligence will develop on a planet. Show me that 1% is also an
accurate measurement of the number that can communicate through long
range, and then show me that the average communication period where
something other than encrypted communication is used is 10,000 years.
That is ALL speculation. Any one of those numbers being wrong really
messes things up. The sample size is just too small at the moment. You
might as well believe in Jesus and the second coming since at least
there's multiple sources verifying that the guy actually lived. It's not
gospel, it's guess work. If each part of the Drake equation is off by a
factor of 10, then the average number of aliens that should be out there
would be reduced by 10^7. And to say that the only answer to the Fermi
paradox is that either ALL die before consuming the galaxy, or that we
are first and there are no other possibilities shows a lack of
understanding of life. It's just not that neat. Life doesn't fit into
nice little boxes like that. To get where you are you have to make even
more assumptions. You assume intelligent life will think like us. (You
assume you know how we will think in the future as well), you assume
that intelligent life will progress at a rate similar to ours, you
assume that life always fills it's container and expands out of it.
Assumption upon assumption upon assumption. Life is analog, not binary.
I know there are some brilliant minds here and I just hate to see them
box themselves in like evangelists. Belief in the absence of proof is
John K Clark wrote:
> "Kevin Freels" <kevin at kevinfreels.com>
>> Then you and I agree. The paradox is a religion, not science.
> We will agree when you tell me, as I have already done, what evidence would
> convince you that the Universe has not been engineered.
> John K Clark
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
More information about the extropy-chat