[extropy-chat] Tomb of Jesus?

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Gina Miller wrote:
> Yes the names are common, and when asked about this, the response from 
> the director of the movie (on the CNN channel) was that statisticians 
> were given the data, and when you add a person who is born to a father 
> with a specific name, the number drops, when you add a brother, it drops 
> even further, when you add a mother, it is not so common, resulting in 
> the statistics of 600 to 1 that this would the family. That's not too 
> shabby, considering that in current day DNA testing, if your number is 1 
> in 200 they consider you related.

Dollars to donuts that 600 to 1 figure is a likelihood, not a posterior. 
  So if there were more than 600 tombs out there, you go figure.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence