[extropy-chat] what is probability?

[Russell Wallace]

On 1/14/07, gts <gts_2000 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> And even assuming his argument is correct for the random chord paradox,
> how is it in any way translatable to the other paradoxes?


It's not.

If the Bertrand paradox is fundamentally unsolvable then it seems to me
> the principle of indifference is toast as a logical principle


The principle of indifference was never valid as a logical principle. If I
know a coin is unbiased, I'm justified in claiming the probability of heads
on the next toss is 0.5. If all I know is that A or B will happen, and
nothing else, I am _not_ justified in claiming the probability of A is 0.5.
It might be something completely different.

and if so
> then it seems two rational agents would be free in certain cases to use
> different bayesian priors.


Of course. Logic is about deriving conclusions from axioms; it doesn't tell
you anything about what axioms you should have.

I would guess that thought is probably anathema to AI researchers; we want
> to know all robots of a kind will think and act identically under
> identical circumstances, yes? Or do we? Real humans seem not to.
>

All robots that are identically programmed will think and act under
identical circumstances. If they're not identically programmed they won't,
same as humans don't. What of it?
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