[extropy-chat] what is probability?

[gts]

On Sun, 14 Jan 2007 20:40:13 -0500, Russell Wallace  
<russell.wallace at gmail.com> wrote:

>> And even assuming his argument is correct for the random chord paradox,
>> how is it in any way translatable to the other paradoxes?
>
> It's not.

Agreed. My question was rhetorical.

> The principle of indifference was never valid as a logical principle.

Many people believe the principle of indifference is and always has been a  
valid logical principle, though at the moment I don't include myself among  
them.

> If all I know is that A or B will happen, and
> nothing else, I am _not_ justified in claiming the probability of A is  
> 0.5. It might be something completely different.

Right, it might be something completely different, and there is really no  
reason whatsoever to think it is 0.5.

But one problem I see is this:

If we are to use Bayesian methods (very popular these days, especially  
here among extropians) then we must find some way to set our prior  
probabilities for use in Bayes' Theorem. In some problem situations the  
principle of indifference looks very attractive, for example in the  
situation you describe above.

-gts