[ExI] Climate Bet, Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

Samantha  Atkins sjatkins at mac.com
Sat Jun 23 10:35:57 UTC 2007

Hmm, quoting:
"Al Gore has claimed that there are scientific forecasts that the  
earth will become warmer and that this will occur rapidly. University  
of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong, author ofPrinciple of  
Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, and Kesten  
C. Green, of Monash University (and Armstrong’s Co-Director of  
forecastingprinciples.com), have been unable to locate a scientific  
forecast to support that viewpoint. As a result, Scott Armstrong  
offers a challenge to Al Gore that he will be able to make more  
accurate forecasts of annual mean temperatures than those that can be  
produced by current climate models."

Odd.  The general scientific consensus is that significant warming is  
occurring now.  So why is there room for doubt that earth will become  
warmer?  It has been and is becoming warmer and the likely causes are  
not significantly abating.  In some cases the increase in temperature  
appears to be building on itself, especially in the Artic.  So what  
exactly is meant by the above?  There is certainly no dearth of  
scientific papers presenting models of how fast average temperatures  
have risen or may rise or under what circumstances there may be more  
rapid fluctuations in temperature.   Methinks the above is not quite  
honest while protesting that it is more honest.   Average temperature  
at each weather station is not a very scientific way to gauge global  

- samantha

On Jun 22, 2007, at 8:43 AM, Max More wrote:

> Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green aim to improve the use of scientific
> forecasting methods in the public policy area. They are using global
> warming as their first example. See http://theclimatebet.com
> Scott tells me that the following paper will be presented next  
> Wednesday:
> Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
> http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf
> Max
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
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