[ExI] Climate Bet, Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
Samantha Atkins
sjatkins at mac.com
Sat Jun 23 10:35:57 UTC 2007
Hmm, quoting:
"Al Gore has claimed that there are scientific forecasts that the
earth will become warmer and that this will occur rapidly. University
of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong, author ofPrinciple of
Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, and Kesten
C. Green, of Monash University (and Armstrong’s Co-Director of
forecastingprinciples.com), have been unable to locate a scientific
forecast to support that viewpoint. As a result, Scott Armstrong
offers a challenge to Al Gore that he will be able to make more
accurate forecasts of annual mean temperatures than those that can be
produced by current climate models."
Odd. The general scientific consensus is that significant warming is
occurring now. So why is there room for doubt that earth will become
warmer? It has been and is becoming warmer and the likely causes are
not significantly abating. In some cases the increase in temperature
appears to be building on itself, especially in the Artic. So what
exactly is meant by the above? There is certainly no dearth of
scientific papers presenting models of how fast average temperatures
have risen or may rise or under what circumstances there may be more
rapid fluctuations in temperature. Methinks the above is not quite
honest while protesting that it is more honest. Average temperature
at each weather station is not a very scientific way to gauge global
warming.
- samantha
On Jun 22, 2007, at 8:43 AM, Max More wrote:
> Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green aim to improve the use of scientific
> forecasting methods in the public policy area. They are using global
> warming as their first example. See http://theclimatebet.com
>
> Scott tells me that the following paper will be presented next
> Wednesday:
>
> Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
> http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf
>
>
> Max
>
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